“You don’t pick the year you contend, the year picks you.” George Grande

The 2025 Reds are living proof.

 Their starting pitching wasn’t just good, it was the  backbone of the season. The projected starters out of spring training, plus mid-season addition Zack Littell, covered nearly 90% of the starts this season. The pitcher that was not guaranteed a starting spot in Goodyear, Andrew Abbott, became an All Star. Hunter Greene was close behind.

The numbers tell the story: Cincinnati’s rotation cost just $40 million yet ranked second in MLB in WAR (16.1), trailing only the Phillies’ $102 million staff (21.5). They threw strikes (3rd in BB/9), kept the ball in the yard (better than league-average HR rate), and still ranked among the top fly-ball staffs — all while pitching in Great American Ball Park, one of baseball’s toughest parks for pitchers.

The bullpen went through a major overhaul before the Dogwoods blossomed when Alexis Diaz was sent back to Arizona to find the strike zone. He never did and appeared in only three games before he was jettisoned to the Dodgers in May. This was the first sign that there was a new sheriff in town. Emilio Pagan, Scott Barlow and Tony Santillan stepped in and pitched in more that 70 games with Santillan appearing in nearly half of the teams’ games.  The bullpen stepped up, too. While the Reds were playing must win games every night since an embarrassing got-swept trip through Sacramento, Reds relievers posted the third best ERA in baseball.

Offensively, the Reds were…average. Their WAR of 1.0 reflected a lineup that neither hit the cheap homers GABP often gifts nor ran the bases with much aggression. This isn’t a speedy roster, and Terry Francona has made it clear he’d rather save outs on the basepaths than manufacture them. The result: an attack that often looked weaker than the numbers suggested.

Any team that makes the post season can win. The Serpentinas won 84 games in 2023 and slithered their way through the playoffs before giving way to the Rangers in Game 5. So, it can be done. Terry Francona has a favorite line he’s repeated several times this season, “You’ve got to be lucky. But you also have to be good enough to take advantage of the luck.”

The Reds didn’t step up this year, but the league stepped back, just enough. The last seat at the playoff table lands the Reds a three-game set in La La Land, where they were swept just a few weeks ago. But that doesn’t matter. What matters is be ready when the year picks you.

Some random tidbits from Inside Edge:

Hunter Greene has a strikeout rate of 40%  when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (5 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% .

Hunter Greene has 10 three-pitch strikeouts this month  — tied for most among pitchers in MLB.

Opponents are hitting just .204  against Hunter Greene on pitches in the strike zone this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .279.

Opponents are hitting just .173  against Hunter Greene when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .258.

TJ Friedl has a swing rate of just 13%  on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in NL; League Avg: 31% .

TJ Friedl has missed on just 3% of swings  against elevated breaking balls this season — best in NL; League Avg: 21% .

Elly De La Cruz has 37 strikeouts lasting 3 pitches this season — most in NL .

Elly De La Cruz has an OBP of .538  on pitches in the shadow zone over the last 14 days — best in NL; League Avg: .272 .

Miguel Andujar has a groundball batting average of .393  with runners on base this season — 3rd best in MLB among hitters with at least 243 total PA’s; League Avg: .267 .

Tyler Stephenson has a swing rate of just 19%  on low fastballs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among hitters with at least 484 total PA’s; League Avg: 34% .

Tyler Stephenson is slugging .608  on elevated fastballs since last season — 3rd best in MLB among hitters with at least 484 total PA’s; League Avg: .380 .